A Progressive KO (Knockout) tournament is one in which half of your buy-in goes to the overall prize pool to be paid out like a normal tournament, while the other half constitutes your bounty. The progressive element comes in because when you eliminate another player, you only get half of his bounty in winnings. The other half attaches to your own bounty, meaning that: the more players you eliminate, the bigger a target you become.
Evaluate preflop holdem poker hands. Player 1: versus Player 2: One hand evaluation - Choose hand: AA: AKs: AQs: AJs: ATs.
- KJo is considered a reverse implied odds (RIO) hand because if/when it flops top pair and gets action, it's probably because the villain has a stronger, dominating hand. We call this a 'trap' or 'trouble' hand. Playing trap or trouble hands is hard, and, when played out of position (OOP) it is almost always a negative EV situation.
- In smaller poker games, players tend to include far too many hands into their preflop ranges. This gives you ample opportunity to find bluff 3bets, +EV preflop calls, and to be proactive in your postflop line creation. Memorize These 5 Poker Ranges. To make your life easier, here are 5 preflop poker ranges that you need to memorize.
Survival is Key
Knocking someone out early on will provide a boost to your bankroll in the form of 25% of the tournament buy-in, but this is a microscopic fragment of the overall prize pool. The big money still resides in the deeper stages of the event and survival is still your utmost priority for that reason. Avoid risking large portions of your stack early on without a clearly favorable investment. While the expected value of going all-in early on in a coin-flip situation is a bit higher than in a standard tournament, it is lower in a progressive knockout than in a regular knockout as you win 25% of a buy-in as opposed to 50%. Getting through the bubble into the money remains the number one goal.
You are playing a $2/$5 NLHE at a local casino. The table is 10-handed and everyone has full 100bb stacks. The players are an even mix of tight-aggressive (TAg) professionals and loose-passive amateurs. Chinese zodiac gambling signs. You've been at the table for a few hours and have a TAg image. You are under-the-gun (UTG) and have been dealt K♥-J♦ and are first to act.
The action is on you. What should you do?
(a) Fold
(b) Open-Limp
(c) Open-Raise
Please leave your answer—and explanation—in the comments below before scrolling down and reading the analysis and answer.
There are three key reasons we need to fold: 1) The probability that one of our opponents has a dominating and/or otherwise playable hand and will tangle with us is nearly 60%. 2) We will be out of position (OOP) postflop against all but the blinds if someone does decide to play their hand. 3) KJo is a reverse implied odds (RIO) hand and tends to lose more than it wins. Ergo: Fold!
For most winning players, this should be a fairly straightforward fold. KJo is a classic 'trouble' hand, and it should almost always be folded UTG at a full-ring table. That said, it's worth an in-depth analysis to see why this is true—and to ensure folding is indeed appropriate in this particular situation.
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R is for Reading the Situation, Ranges, & Lines:
Game Situation:
A $2/$5 NLHE game at a casino will likely be one of the lowest buy-in games. This means it will attract the weaker amateurs, fishy players, and the occasional low-stakes professional. The key to playing well at these stakes is to adopt a fairly straightforward ABC style, wherein you look to play pots in position, bluff only occasionally, and make the vast majority of your money via value betting weaker players and and exploiting their leaks. In this situation, we have a preflop positional disadvantage against all nine opponents, and we will have a positional disadvantage against up to seven of the nine players after the flop.
You are playing a $2/$5 NLHE at a local casino. The table is 10-handed and everyone has full 100bb stacks. The players are an even mix of tight-aggressive (TAg) professionals and loose-passive amateurs. Chinese zodiac gambling signs. You've been at the table for a few hours and have a TAg image. You are under-the-gun (UTG) and have been dealt K♥-J♦ and are first to act.
The action is on you. What should you do?
(a) Fold
(b) Open-Limp
(c) Open-Raise
Please leave your answer—and explanation—in the comments below before scrolling down and reading the analysis and answer.
There are three key reasons we need to fold: 1) The probability that one of our opponents has a dominating and/or otherwise playable hand and will tangle with us is nearly 60%. 2) We will be out of position (OOP) postflop against all but the blinds if someone does decide to play their hand. 3) KJo is a reverse implied odds (RIO) hand and tends to lose more than it wins. Ergo: Fold!
For most winning players, this should be a fairly straightforward fold. KJo is a classic 'trouble' hand, and it should almost always be folded UTG at a full-ring table. That said, it's worth an in-depth analysis to see why this is true—and to ensure folding is indeed appropriate in this particular situation.
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R is for Reading the Situation, Ranges, & Lines:
Game Situation:
A $2/$5 NLHE game at a casino will likely be one of the lowest buy-in games. This means it will attract the weaker amateurs, fishy players, and the occasional low-stakes professional. The key to playing well at these stakes is to adopt a fairly straightforward ABC style, wherein you look to play pots in position, bluff only occasionally, and make the vast majority of your money via value betting weaker players and and exploiting their leaks. In this situation, we have a preflop positional disadvantage against all nine opponents, and we will have a positional disadvantage against up to seven of the nine players after the flop.
Villain's Ranges & Lines:
As we're the first to act, all nine players behind can literally have ATC, or Any Two Cards. We have no idea what ranges to put any of the players on yet, so we assume everyone has ATC. We also haven't a clue about what the other players want to do with their cards (i.e., their lines).
E is for Evaluating the Math:
Pot Size:
The current pot is just $7 at the moment.
Hand Equity:
As usual, I used Poker Cruncher to calculate our hand equity. As you can see from the image, below, KJo has very poor equity against the ATC of our nine opponents. Yes, at ~14% it is better than everyone else's nominal 9.5%, but it's still pretty bad:
With this little equity, we would need at least 5 callers if we somehow got all the money in preflop to make this a +EV play.
Fold Equity:
Fold equity, which is a measure of the likelihood everyone will fold if we bet, is not something that can be explicitly calculated. There are a number of subjective factors that go into determining it. For instance, our image matters a lot, as do the emotional states of our opponents, and of course the unknown strength of each opponent's cards. In a situation like this, however, we can estimate the probability that someone has a significantly stronger hand than ours; i.e, will everyone likely fold or not if we bet.
To determine how likely this is, we can do a simple probability analysis. Because our opponents can have ATC, we can only really evaluate our hand in terms of how probable it is that one of these villains wakes up with a hand better than ours. Our first criteria for evaluating relative hand strength is 'domination,' which is generally defined as hands that have 60% or more equity against yours.
The hands that dominate KJo include the big pocket pairs AA, KK, QQ, & JJ, and all suited and unsuited AK, AQ, AJ, AT, and KQ. Per Poker Cruncher, these cards represent 6.94% of the possible 2-card combinations in the deck. This means there is a 100%-6.94% = 93.06% chance that our KJ is better than a single opponent's random hand.
We also need to consider a smattering of other hands that villains tend to play in this kind of situation. For simplicity sake, let's assume these are the remaining small and medium pocket pairs that are basically coin flips against us hot-and-cold, but have a strong advantage when played in position. (There are also other non-air hands that villains on/near the button may play, but we'll ignore these for now.)
Said another way, the four mid-position (MP) and late position (LP) players will likely play the ranges of 22+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo against us, which represents 11.9% of possible hands. The probability that our KJo is stronger/more playable than a single one of these five MP and LP players is therefore 100%-11.9%=88.1%.
Next, to calculate the probability that one of the remaining nine players wakes up with either a dominating and/or coin flip hand in position against us, we simply multiply the probabilities that they don't have a dominating and/or coin flip hand in position together: 93.06% x 93.06% x 93.06% x 93.06% x 93.06% x 88.1% x 88.1% x 88.1% x 88.1%= 42%.
Finally, to determine how likely at least one of our opponents has either a dominating hand or a strong coin flip hand in position against ours, we simply subtract 42% from 100% = 58%. Said more simply, our fold equity is pretty low if we bet, as nearly 60% of the time at least one opponent will stay in the hand—and most of those times we'll be out of position.
D is for Deciding on Max EV Line:
KJo is considered a reverse implied odds (RIO) hand because if/when it flops top pair and gets action, it's probably because the villain has a stronger, dominating hand. We call this a 'trap' or 'trouble' hand. Playing trap or trouble hands is hard, and, when played out of position (OOP) it is almost always a negative EV situation.
Solid, winning poker is conservative poker, meaning you rely on good reads on your opponents to make profitable decisions. Here, we're first to act and have essentially no useful reads. We do, however, know that there's nearly a 60% chance we'll face at least one opponent that has either a dominating hand to ours or has a playable hand in position against us.
Ergo, folding should be the obvious choice.
(a) Fold
There are a few points about this hand that merit further discussion:
RIOs Get Worse at Higher Stakes:
We've just seen that this is not a profitable hand to play at a low stakes table. Now imagine taking it up to a $5/$10 or $10/$20 live game (or equivalent $100NL or higher games online). At least one of the opponents is just as likely (58%) to have a strong hand against us, but they also are generally more skilled; i.e., it will be that much harder for us to not lose a lot of money if we do somehow connect with the board.
Ko Poker
Number of Opponents:
The more opponents there are to act after us, the more likely one of them has a dominating hand. This particular situation is 10-handed. What do you think happens if we were at a 9-handed table? Six-max? Or something else? Answer: KJo becomes more playable, as there are fewer players that could wake up with dominating or playable hands against us.
Pretty Hands Aren't Always Strong Hands:
For many beginning poker players, KJo looks a lot stronger than it actually it. I know when I was first starting out in poker that I thought it was a stronger hand that it actually was. I also know now from coaching beginning students that they often feel the same way. But KJo is not very strong. Sure, in late position, KJ is a good hand to open-raise with. But at a 10-handed table in early position, it's terrible. Hand strength must always be discussed in terms of a situation and no just in a vacuum.
KJo is known as a classic 'trap hand' with large reverse implied odds, especially when played out of position, and even more so when facing a large field size of opponents. By definition, RIO hands tend to win little pots and lose big ones. The standard ABC advice is to fold trap RIO hands in early position—and now you know why!
Kjo Poker Games
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